Brian’s 2025 Recap + Looking Ahead to 2026
A NOTE FROM BRIAN
2025 was a weird year — not because we didn’t have a strategy, but because ag markets basically didn’t move. Brian said he doesn’t care if markets finish as the year’s biggest winners or losers… as long as there’s movement.
And in 2025, corn and soybeans were nearly flat.
He called it one of the most frustrating years he’s seen — “top three, probably second.” In his words, it was the most challenging year in 25 years from a trading perspective in the ag markets.
If you felt that frustration… you weren’t alone. And the whole TOA team is grateful that you stuck it out.
THE BIGGEST WIN IN 2025
Brian said one of the hardest parts of building a company like TOA is getting all the moving pieces to operate as one unit — compliance, partners, and client execution.
In 2025, we made major progress getting those systems working together smoothly — and that matters going into 2026 because it sets the foundation for scaling, streamlining, and delivering consistently to YOU, our TOA clients!
WHAT WORKED WELL FOR TOA IN 2025
We were inspired and motivated by the growth of the Bunker community in 2025, with great participation from you and also with involvement of special guests like Angie Setzer, Ben Rand, and Gordon Linn. We look forward to more educational and practical conversations in 2026.
On the trade size, even though corn and beans didn’t move much, Brian pointed to a bright spot: the LRP program in cattle paired with options.
What mattered most was the outcome: it helped clients stay protected if markets dropped — without giving up upside.
Brian also pointed out something that helps put the whole year into perspective: feeder cattle moved about 25% since November. Meanwhile soybeans moved about 50 cents all year. Different markets, very different opportunity sets.
Who is the LRP for?
Brian’s answer was simple: every producer with cattle inventory should at least look at it. And yes — it’s still open. If you want to explore it, you can access TOA’s free LRP Options Tutorial and Case Study or reach out to the team.
BRIAN’S BIGGEST LESSON FROM 2025
Brian said the biggest lesson was this: we need to move faster and be more assertive when opportunity shows up.
In stagnant, range-bound markets there isn’t much adjusting you can do — but what can be improved is recognizing that environment quickly, and neutralizing risks that slowly bleed over time (especially theta-related option decay).
That’s a core focus we’re carrying into 2026.
2026 OUTLOOK: WHY BRIAN IS OPTIMISTIC
Brian doesn’t think one sector stays stagnant forever. He said after a year like 2025, we may be approaching a stretch where agriculture starts moving again — which creates better hedging and speculative opportunities.
One of the most important factors he flagged going into 2026 is this: option volatility in ag markets is extremely low, historically low.
That matters because when volatility is cheap and movement returns, the payoff profile improves significantly. Brian described it as a rare setup where the downside risk of owning options is lower, while the upside reward can expand dramatically if prices begin trending.
BRIAN’S ONE-LINER FOR 2026
Don’t let 2025 dictate 2026.
Just because markets didn’t move last year doesn’t mean they won’t move this year — and assuming “more of the same” is the mindset that can get traders hurt.
WHAT TO WATCH EARLY IN 2026
The January USDA Crop Production + WASDE report (January 12) will finalize 2025 production/stock data and could be the first major catalyst of 2026.
If USDA makes meaningful changes → expect volatility + possible trend shift
If numbers are unchanged → January may stay quieter until spring pricing begins
CORN 🌽
Early seedings estimate: ~93.5M acres (+1.5M vs 2025)
More acres = more supply potential → headline bearish if yields are normal
Still early — acreage will shift as farmers weigh:
corn vs bean price relationships
fertilizer/input costs
spring conditions
crop insurance prices
TOA working range: 93–95M acres (until better data comes in)
What would change the story?
Weather risk, stronger exports, or a demand surprise.
SOYBEANS 🫛
Early seedings estimate: ~86.5M acres (–1M vs 2025)
Reduction makes sense after a big 2025 — but demand is still the driver
No “Santa Rally” → market still questioning demand
China buying has been mixed; South American beans remain competitive
Upside drivers:
Stronger confirmed exports / China follow-through
South American weather issues (Brazil/Argentina)
Trade policy follow-through turning into real shipments
IMPORTANT DATES IN 2026 🗓️
USDA WASDE Reports
Jan 12 | Feb 10 | Mar 10
Apr 9 | May 12 | Jun 11
Jul 10 | Aug 12 | Sep 11
Oct 9 | Nov 10 | Dec 10
ECO Crop Insurance
Price discovery: Feb 1–28
Enrollment deadline: March 15
TOA BOTTOM LINE
January 12 is the first line-in-the-sand for 2026.
Corn acres look heavy early; beans slightly lighter — market trades acreage until weather takes over.
Have a plan going into spring: reward rallies and protect risk early.
Action step: know your break-evens + set target orders ahead of USDA report days.
FINAL THOUGHT
Brian would end this wrap-up with something worth repeating: 2025 was emotionally hard, but don’t lose faith. Everyone felt it, and the setup going into 2026 may look very different than what we just lived through.
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